Which Age Group Has The Most Impact on The Direction of the Housing Market – San Ramon

A recent article in DSNews.com (see below)indicated that the Baby Boomers is the age group with the greatest influence on where the housing market will venture in the future. This is very evident in San Ramon/Danville area where many of these homeowners have been in their homes for 30 plus years and have no intention of moving. Thus the case for raising prices due to shortages of inventories.

I am out in the neighborhoods and talk with many of these homeowners everyday and their comments are: our house is paid for and where would we go? Here is what the research indicated:

“Baby boomers and other homeowners over the age of 55, which number about 67 million, control about two-thirds of the nation’s aggregate home equity, which computes to about $8 trillion.

These numbers put this group in a position to greatly influence where the housing market will go in the next decade, according to Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sean Becketti “Whether they decide to move from their current homes or age in place, the cumulative impact of their decisions on mortgage demand, affordable housing supplies, and the housing options available to Millennials and other aspiring homeowners will be substantial,” Becketti wrote.

Freddie Mac’s survey of nearly 4,900 homeowners age 55 and over (a mix of men, women, Caucasian, African-American, and Hispanic, and Asian), revealed that the majority of baby boomers are satisfied with their current homes

Approximately 40 percent of boomers (27 million) who said that if they had complete control, they would move at least one more time. According to Freddie Mac, 19 million of those boomers plan to buy a home and eight million plan to move in the next four years.”

Because of the limited on land we have in the San Ramon Valley, new construction is minimal. So we may see tight inventories for quite some time keeping our market place very competitive.

Article Source: DSNews.com & CCAR Market Matters

Market Update – Tri Valley Cities June 2016

As we head into Summer, we are seeing more homes come on the market…which is good. We are still in a market heavy with buyers and limited sellers. Here are the results year to date for Tri Valley area compared to the same  time period 2015.

Median Home Prices January thru May:

2015 2016 % change
Alamo 1,448,582 1,680,000   +14%
Blackhawk 1,400,000 1,456,800   +4%
Concord    495,000    550,000   +10%
Danville 1,100,000 1,205,000   +9%
Dublin 920,000 930,000   +1%
Livermore 675,000 724,950   +7%
Pleasanton 950,000 1,075,000   +11%
San Ramon 985,000 1,024,000   +4%
Walnut Creek 942,500 1,000,000   +6%

Where Are These People Going?

I recently read an article indicating a recent survey of 1,000 people, 34% of them said they would be leaving the Bay Area.  This survey was conducted by the Bay Area Council. The reasons for the exodus – home costs and traffic, which to those folks indicate the quality of life in the San Francisco Bay is going down.

While this is true, while people are leaving more people are arriving.  And yes home prices are escalating as is the traffic. Yet the demand for housing is still relatively high and until the supply meets the demand, it is likely the prices will continue to rise.  Yet (my opinion only) the Bay area has so much to offer. We are close just about everything and our weather is hard to beat.

So, I wonder, where are these folks relocating to that has as much to offer as the Bay Area?

Source http://www.ktvu.com

Danville Home Sales 1st Quarter 2016

For the first three months of 2016, there were 100 closed real estate sales for single family detached homes. Compared to 2015 this is 10 percent less closings for the same time frame. Here is the breakdown for the first quarter.

January February March
# Listed    29    64    80
# Pending Sales    21    41    60
# Closed Sales    33    23    44
Average Sales Price 1,219,866 1,205,690 1,280,206
Median Sales Price 1,102,500 1,100,000 1,187,500
Average Days on Market      40     27     29
Highest Sales Price 3,200,000 3,200,000 2,285,000
Lowest Sales Price 835,000 842,000 825,000

The average sales price is at par with 2015. Average for 2015 $1,249,799. Average to date for 2016 $1,246,418. This is only the first quarter so there is no way at this time to tell which way the market will go. As we are heading into the Spring season, we will see more homes come on the market.

San Ramon Monthly Market Update – March 2016

For the month of March 2016 there were a total of 44 single family detached homes. This is down slightly from 2015 units sales were at 55. Average sales price is up 8% compared to 2015.

San Ramon March Sales

March 2015 March 2016
# Units Listed 87 78
# Units Sold 44
Average Sales Price $1,100,477 $1,015,666
Median Sales Price $985,000 $1,055,000
Average Days on Market 14 13

Currently 60 homes on the market for sale in San Ramon, which based on the current trend is about one month’s inventory. As we head into the Spring season, I am seeing more “coming soon” signs indicating that we will have more homes for buyers.

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