2015 vs 2014 Final Results

Here is the outcome for cities in San Ramon Valley for the year ending 2015. As can be noted all areas were up. And also of note is that while we are still appreciating, the rate is more in line with a balanced market. We expect to see single digit rates over the next few years, predictions around 5% to 8%.

City 2014  2015 % Change
Alamo  $1,583,812 $1,784,734 + 9%
Blackhawk  $1,561,665 $1,665,543 + 6%
Concord  $   482,115 $  530,066 +  9%
Danville  $1,184,089 $1,249,496 +  5%
Dublin  $   879,361 $   950,973 +  7%
Livermore  $   702,083 $   766, 303 +  7%
Pleasanton  $ 1,092,629 $1,191,950 +  8%
San Ramon  $   959,081 $1,040,928 +  8%
Walnut Creek  $   935,439 $1,001,732 +  6%

 

5% Down – New FannieMae Guidelines December 2015

Effective immediately, exciting news for home buyers in Contra Costa County. For home loans up to $629,000 you now have the choice between a conventional mortgage loan or an FHA mortgage loan both with low down payment requirements. Previously FannieMae required a minimum of 10% down on mortgage loans under $629,000 so the only option for home buyers with limited funds was FHA.

To understand the difference, FHA loans are 3.5% down. FannieMae 5% down. Generally the mortgage insurance premiums are higher on FHA loans than conventional loans, yet the biggest difference is with an FHA loan the mortgage insurance never goes away. With conventional loans, once the mortgage has reached the 80% loan to value, a borrower can request the elimination of the mortgage insurance.

Along with easing down payment requirements Fannie Mae is now requiring only one year of tax returns for self-employed borrowers. Formerly a borrower was required to have two years of self-employment tax returns.

With these changes we are hoping that more people will be in a position to buy a home.

How Do We Know The Direction of the Real Estate Market

It is now December 2015 and over the past three to four years home prices have been rising to new highs in the San Ramon Valley area. The cities included in San Ramon Valley are  Danville, Alamo, Walnut Creek, San Ramon, and Dublin. Each of these cities has experienced double digit appreciation.  How long will this last and are there indicators the market is changing  direction

Some indicators of the direction of the market:

  1. Inventory levels – going up or going down. In our area inventory levels stay steady. We don’t see a glut of homes coming on the market. Based on the number of possible units our inventory levels are low: i.e. Danville 61 homes; San Ramon 115 homes, Dublin 97 Homes, Walnut Creek 59 Homes; Alamo 45 Homes
  2. Multiple Offers – depending on the area and price, there are relatively fewer multiple offers. If a home gets 6 or more offers, generally it is because the list price was lower than the market which drew a lot of attention and several offers.
  3. List to Price Ratio: Just as with multiple offers properties were selling for more than list. Data indicates that this has decreased and sales prices are now right a list or slightly below. This could indicate a decline, yet it is too early to tell. It could just be the season. As an example here are list price ratios for Danville at 99%, Dublin at 100%;  San Ramon at 100%; Alamo 100%; Walnut Creek 100%
  4. Days on Market – while days on market are up slightly it is not drastic. Homes on average are selling in 30 days or less. Still a brisk market
  5. Builders – Builders do extensive market research on real estate, not just locally but nationally. When they sense a market is changing their strategy changes as well. In a declining market builders will offer more incentives to buyers and higher commission to real estate agents. Nothing out of the ordinary on this aspect.

The conclusion for San Ramon Valley – too early to tell. Best thing is to wait until the first quarter of 2016 to really see which way the market in headed.

 

 

Dublin CA October Home Sales

Dublin like most cities in our area is experiencing a rise in home prices with the average price now up to $909,621 for the month of October and $954,000 year to date. This is an 8% increase over year to date figures for 2014.

Here is a breakdown of the October home sales for Dublin:

  • 42 home listed
  • 40 homes pended – received a contract
  • 34 closed sales
    • $909,621 – Average sales price
    • $865,000 – Median sales price
    • $1,430,000 – Highest sales price
    • $627,888 – Lowest sales price
    • 20 – Average days on market

October’s average sales prices are up 1.5% as compared to September 2015. Home prices in Dublin have far exceeded their 2005 peak of $859,932.  We are starting to see prices come down a bit which may be an indication of a market peak.

Holiday Tree Lighting – Danville, Alamo, San Ramon

Tis the season for the annual tree lighting ceremonies in San Ramon, Danville and Alamo. Here is the schedule for each City and what you can expect at these festive events:

  • Danville

    • Location – Old Oak Tree on Diablo Blvd.
    • When: November 27, 2015, 5:15 to 8:20
    • Entertainment
      • San Ramon Valley High School Chorus
      • Musical Entertainers
      • Refreshments from some stores and shops
      • Small parade down Hartz Ave with Father Time
  • San Ramon

    • Location: Bishop Ranch One – Bollinger
    • When: December 4, 2015, 5:30 to 7:00 PM
    • Entertainment
      • 70 Foot White Fir Tree Lighting at 6:30
      • Santa Claus
      • Live Reindeer
      • Petting Zoo
      • Snow Play area
      • 2 stages with music and entertainment
  • Alamo

    • Location: Alamo Oak Tree Plaza next to Andrew H. Young Park
    • When: November 22, 2015; 4:30 PM
    • Entertainment
      • Choirs from local schools
      • Tri-Valley Repertory
      • Photos w/Santa
      • Snacks
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