Will A Rise In Interest Rates Slow the Real Estate Market
This is a question asked by many. My answer is maybe there will be a pause – but only for a moment. I say this because I was selling homes when interest rates were 12%. Granted home prices weren't as high, yet even with interest rates at 6% to 8% the San Ramon Valley area has always flourished. The demand here is high and will continue to be so.
As we all have our opinions and the above is mine, here is what the "experts" say are the three main reasons they feel we have a strong real estate market going forward.
Number 1: 2014 should prove to be the strongest year for housing activity since before the Great Recession
“Most economists expect an improved job market in 2014, with employment growth accelerating and the unemployment rate continuing to decline. That jobless rate drop will reflect more of a pickup in employment than further declines in the labor force participation rate. This will be the key factor improving housing demand this year, even if mortgage rates rise and affordability declines. While the housing market tends to do especially well when the job market improves and mortgage rates decline simultaneously, that combination of events occurs only rarely…People buy homes when their job and income prospects improve – even if it’s more expensive to do so – rather than buy when it is inexpensive to do so but they’re worried about keeping their jobs.”
“Consumers have taken the interest rate rise in stride. Expectations for continued improvement in housing persist, and sentiment toward the current buying and selling environment is back on track.”
Number 2: Demographics should start to favor housing activity
“If the economy expands at a faster pace this year, bringing a more rapid rate of job creation, that should translate into more households, raising housing demand. We won’t see all three million missing households return to the housing market at once. (That wouldn’t be a good thing for the housing market anyway, since that would be on top of the 1.2 million households that normally would develop this year; such a surge would swamp the existing housing supply). Beginning in 2014, the pace of household formations should accelerate to an above-trend pace for several years, pushing up housing demand.”
Number 3: Mortgage availability shouldn’t worsen and may improve
“The rise in mortgage rates already has reduced mortgage origination volumes as refinance activity declines. If mortgage rates rise further this year, as expected, then refinance activity will fall still more. In response, mortgage lenders probably will ease lending standards to the extent possible under the QM rules to boost lending activity by increasing purchase originations. As a result, the increase in new households expected to be created this year, spurred by a stronger job market, should find that qualifying for a mortgage loan will be somewhat easier in 2014 than in prior years.”
So the question to buyers, is now your time to make a purchase or do you want to continue to wait?
Filed under: Market Data
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